Housing in Numbers

Chapter 2

Prices and rents: the scale of the problem

+17.6% in 2025. Prices against earnings, rents on new contracts and Portugal in Europe.

Jorge Alexandre PereiraUpdated

Densely packed rooftops and buildings in Lisbon; in the background, the Tagus, the 25 de Abril Bridge and the Cristo Rei.
Illustrative imageLisbon seen from the Miradouro dos Barros.
In this chapter
  • House prices rose 17.6% in 2025, the largest annual rise in the INE series, and 16.5% in Q2 2026, year on year.
  • Between 2015 and 2025 the price index rose 164% in annual averages, against 53% in the euro area. Only Hungary rose more in the EU.
  • Relative to average earnings per worker, homes became about 84% more expensive after 2015.
  • The median rent on new contracts more than doubled after 2017, from €4.39 to €9.50/m².

The 2025 rise

House prices rose 17.6% in 2025, the largest annual rise in the INE series: 18.9% for existing homes and 14.2% for new ones. 169,812 homes were sold, for €41.2bn, the highest value in the series.

The rise eased only slightly in 2026: +17.8% in the first quarter and +16.5% in the second, compared with the same quarter a year earlier, with fewer transactions.

+17.6%

house prices in 2025, the largest rise in the series

Official dataINE · HPI

+164%

prices between 2015 and 2025, in annual averages; euro area: +53%

Official dataEurostat

9.50€/m²

median rent on new contracts (12 months to March 2026)

Official dataINE

Portugal in Europe

In 2013, at the end of the assistance programme, prices were 13% below 2010. Since then Portugal has had one of the fastest rises in Europe: the 2025 index is 2.6 times the 2015 level. Eurostat ranks Portugal second in the EU, with +180% between 2015 and the end of 2025, after Hungary.

House prices: Portugal and Europe, 2010–2025

House price index · annual average · 2015 = 100

Download CSV
  • Portugal
  • Euro area
  • Spain
  • Hungary
  • Other comparators

Official data Eurostat, prc_hpi_a (01-10-2026). Hungary 2025 provisional.

Annual averages: +164% in Portugal between 2015 and 2025. The +180% quoted by Eurostat compares Q4 2025 with the 2015 average.

Two numbers for the same rise

Eurostat’s +180% compares Q4 2025 with the 2015 average. Comparing annual averages, 2025 against 2015, the rise is +164%. The IMF quotes +169%, with data up to Q3 2025. It is the same index, measured up to different points.

Prices against earnings

Average gross earnings per worker were €1,505 in 2023 and €1,694 in 2025. Against about €1,179 in 2015, that is a rise of about 44%. Over the same period the house price index rose 164%. Dividing one by the other, a home now costs about 84% more years of earnings than in 2015. Own calculation

House prices and average earnings, 2015–2025

Index · 2015 = 100 · earnings only in years with a known value

Download CSV
  • House prices (Eurostat)
  • Average gross earnings per worker

Official data Eurostat (prices); INE and Government (earnings). Own calculation for the earnings index.

The 2015 earnings value is derived from the change published up to 2023 and is still to be confirmed in the INE table. Years without a value are not interpolated. It is earnings per worker, not household income.

What this does not prove

These are earnings per worker, not household income, which may combine two salaries and other sources. The 2015 value is derived and still to be confirmed in the INE table (log item V01). The ratio shows the direction and order of magnitude, not the housing cost burden of any particular family.

Lisbon apartment buildings with tiled roofs and balconies with washing hanging out.
Apartment buildings in Lisbon.

Rents

The median rent on new leases was €4.39/m² in 2017. In the 12 months to March 2026 it was €9.50/m², across 149,690 contracts: 116% more. In the municipality of Lisbon, the median in Q1 2026 was €17.42/m², 8.2% more than a year earlier.

Series note

In 2026 INE started a new series, from 2020, using Tax Authority data, which covers about 50% more contracts. INE states that, over the common period, the median per m² does not change significantly. The comparison with 2017 crosses the two series and should be read as indicative.

Why prices rose so much

A Banco de Portugal study finds overvaluation since 2017 and concludes that, unlike in Spain, supply could not offset the pressure of demand. The IMF sees the imbalances as structural, not cyclical: a shortage of construction, low productivity in the sector, slow licensing and limits on renting. Credit was not the main driver: new lending is about half the value of transactions.

Counter-arguments

  • Prices started from a low level: in 2013 they were below 2010. Part of the rise is a recovery.
  • The national average hides large differences between Lisbon, Porto and the Algarve and the rest of the country.
  • Household incomes may have grown more than average earnings per worker, because employment also rose.