Housing in Numbers

Chapter 1

New construction: the collapse of supply

Portugal completed an average of 79,564 new homes a year between 2000 and 2010. Since 2015 the average has been 16,283, about a fifth.

Jorge Alexandre PereiraUpdated

Concrete frame of a multi-storey building under construction, with unfinished brick walls and a crane.
Illustrative imageResidential building under construction. Location not identified.
In this chapter
  • The peak was in 2002 (125,708 homes) and the low point in 2015 (7,148). In 2025, 27,301 were completed, the highest figure since 2011 and still below 2010.
  • The fall began in 2003 and accelerated with the 2008 crisis and the 2011–2014 assistance programme. It predates the Costa and Montenegro governments.
  • Public bodies developed 10 new homes in 2024 and 53 in 2025.

The series

Portugal completed 35,442 new homes in 2010 and an average of 79,564 a year between 2000 and 2010. Since 2015 the average has been 16,283 a year. The recovery is real: licensing reached 42,066 dwellings in 2025, the highest since 2011. But a licence takes two to four years to become a completed home.

New homes completed and licensed per year, 2000–2025

Dwellings completed in new residential buildings · number · 2021–2025 provisional

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  • Final
  • Provisional
  • Period average
  • Government in office

Official data Statistics Portugal (INE), completed construction works (0013249), via PORDATA. Permits: INE (0008309).

The bands show the government in office for most of each year, not who caused the figure: a home completed today comes from a permit requested two to four years earlier.

Method note

The series only counts dwellings in new residential buildings for family housing. Renovations and extensions add homes, but INE does not publish a national series of renovated dwellings. The available indicators point to a net contribution of at most about 12% in 2025, and the number of renovated buildings has fallen since 2015.

For 2025 INE has two figures: 27,301 (annual count, used here) and 26,714 (sum of the quarterly estimates).

The counterfactual

Had 2015–2025 kept the pace of 2000–2010, Portugal would have completed 696,088 more new homes: 875,206 in 2000–2010, against 179,118 in 2015–2025.

Cumulative new homes since 2015: actual and at the 2000–2010 pace

Cumulative dwellings completed · number · 2015–2025 · counterfactual = 79,564 a year

  • Actual (cumulative)
  • At the 2000–2010 pace (hypothetical)

Own calculation based on INE (0013249).

What this does not prove

These 696,088 homes are a comparison with an earlier pace, not a measure of a housing deficit. The 2000–2010 pace included an exceptional construction cycle, which is not a target. Real needs depend on how many households need a home, where, and on how many vacant homes can return to the market.

Who builds

Almost all new construction is developed by private individuals and companies. Public bodies completed 401 new homes in 2011 and 10 in 2024. The main public programme, 1.º Direito, focuses mainly on renovation: by the end of 2025 it had 18,778 dwellings completed, about 85% of them renovated, and only 2,401 handed over to families.

New homes completed by public bodies

Dwellings in new residential buildings · number · 2011–2025

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Official data INE (0013249), by developer type.

Counter-arguments

  • The 2021 Census counted 723,215 vacant dwellings. Part of the answer may come from there, although many are in the interior, run-down or tied up in unresolved inheritances.
  • Building more is not enough if homes are not built where demand is growing: Greater Lisbon, the Setúbal Peninsula and the Algarve.

Timeline and time lag

The fall began in 2003, after the end of subsidised credit for new contracts (September 2002) and the peak of the cycle. It accelerated with the 2008 financial crisis and the 2011–2014 assistance programme. The collapse of construction therefore predates the governments of António Costa and Luís Montenegro.

What can be attributed to the governments after 2015 is the slowness of the recovery, not the fall. And part of the 2024–2025 increase comes from projects licensed under the previous government. Author's analysis