In this chapter
- The resident population grew by 824,914 people between the end of 2021 and the end of 2025; almost all of the growth is immigration.
- Over the same period, 95,294 new homes were completed.
- Foreign residents rose from 748,155 to 1,597,539, 14% of the population.
- Net migration fell from 371,000 in 2022 to 71,000 in 2025.
The scale
At the end of 2025, 11,424,031 people lived in Portugal, of whom 1,597,539 were foreign nationals, against 748,155 at the end of 2021Primary sourceINE — Estimativas de População Residente 202511,424,031 residents; +824,914 between 2021 and 2025; 1,597,539 foreign nationals.Open the original ↗. Net migration was 371,000 in 2022, 307,000 in 2023, 217,000 in 2024 and 71,000 in 2025. Demographic demand is easing, but it built up over four years.
Foreign population resident in Portugal, 2021–2025
People at 31 December · revised series based on administrative records
Official data INE, Resident Population Estimates 2025 (22-06-2026).
Not comparable with the 2021 Census or with estimates up to 2020. AIMA publishes a different series, which should not be combined with this one. The 2025 values may be revised.
Two series that do not mix
AIMA counted 1,543,697 foreign residents at 31 December 2024Secondary sourceObservador — Oficial: existem mais de 1,5 milhões de imigrantes em PortugalAIMA: 1,543,697 foreign nationals at 31-12-2024; 286,302 appointments.Open the original ↗; INE estimates 1,538,426 for the same date. They are different series and are not combined. INE has acknowledged difficulties in receiving AIMA data, so the 2025 values may be revisedSecondary sourceECO — INE revela dificuldades na transmissão de dados da AIMAPossible revisions to the 2025 data.Open the original ↗.
The housing arithmetic
With an average household size of 2.5 people, 825,000 more residents are equivalent to about 330,000 households. Over the same period 95,294 new homes were completed. Own calculation
New households and new homes, 2022–2025
Per year · households = population increase ÷ 2.5 people (illustrative) · homes = new dwellings completed
- Equivalent households (illustrative)
- New homes completed
Own calculation based on INE (population estimates 2025; completed works, 0013249). Average household size: 2021 Census.
This is not a measurement of homes needed: immigrants live on average in larger households, and part of the demand goes to renting rooms.
What this does not prove
This is not a measurement of homes needed. Immigrants live on average in larger households, which reduces the number of equivalent homes but not the direction of the comparison. Part of the demand does not turn into homes: it turns into rented rooms and overcrowding.
Where the pressure goes
In 2023, 23.8% of non-EU citizens living in Portugal were in overcrowded homes, against 10.8% of nationalsSecondary sourceECO — Quase um quarto dos cidadãos não europeus vivem em casas sobrelotadasEurostat 2023: 23.8% of non-Europeans in overcrowded homes, against 10.8% of nationals.Open the original ↗. Renting a room or a bed has become common in the metropolitan areas. And the pressure has reached home buying: foreign nationals with tax residence in Portugal bought 34,838 homes in 2025Secondary sourceECO — Uma em cada quatro casas vendidas em 2025 foi para mãos estrangeiras41,086 purchases by foreign nationals (households); mortgage lending.Open the original ↗.
The Banco de Portugal studied about 300 municipalities between 2017 and 2024. It estimates that a 1% increase in demand, measured by the number of households, raises prices by between 0.52% and 0.64% and rents by between 0.28% and 0.34%, with larger effects where supply is more rigid, such as Lisbon and PortoPrimary sourceBanco de Portugal — Amador, «A dinâmica dos preços da habitação e das rendas em Portugal», Revista de Estudos Económicos XII-4Price and rent elasticities to demand; does not isolate migration.Open the original ↗. The study does not isolate the contribution of migration: it lists it among the drivers of demand.
Stock and flow: what the numbers say
The expression of interest, which allowed people already working in Portugal to regularise their status, was created in 2017 and extended in 2019, under PS governments. It was abolished by the Montenegro government in June 2024Secondary sourceAPCMC — Estrangeiros: extintas as manifestações de interesseSummary of Decree-Law 37-A/2024.Open the original ↗.
The 1.54 million foreign nationals are a stock, not the arrivals under one government. They include about 400,000 who already lived here before 2017, EU citizens with freedom of movement, about 61,000 beneficiaries of temporary protection from Ukraine, and pending cases processed after 2024. In May 2025 AIMA had reviewed about 440,000 pending applications: about 170,000 were closed and about 130,000 were awaiting a decisionSecondary sourceObservador — AIMA já analisou os 440 mil pedidos pendentesMission Structure: applications closed and pending.Open the original ↗. The 286,000 often quoted are appointments, not permits.
The defensible formulation is this: most of the 2017–2024 increase comes from arrivals under PS governments and from regimes they created, part of it regularised later. Author's analysis
Counter-arguments
- Prices were already rising before the wave of migration: the Banco de Portugal finds overvaluation since 2017, when there were 422,000 foreign nationals.
- Immigrants are also supply: a large share of construction labour is foreign. Less immigration without more workers in the sector also reduces the capacity to build.
- The 2021 Census counted 723,215 vacant dwellings and 1,104,881 for seasonal or secondary usePrimary sourcePortal da Habitação / INE — Censos 2021: população, agregados e alojamentos723,215 vacant dwellings; average household size.Open the original ↗. Many are in the interior, run-down or tied up in unresolved inheritances.